They support the home team!

Moskowitz & Wertheim, 2012, Buraimo, 2010, Boyko\(^3\), 2007

They look up to superstars!

Kim & King, 2014, Mills, 2014

Does working the referees…work?

• "Part of the game-plan" (NYT, 2008)
• "Playing the referees" (Deadspin, 2014)
• "Did Coach-K work the refs?" (USA Today, 2015)

• Favorable strike zones to catchers in MLB (Mills, 2014)
• NBA:
  
  • Source: (NBA.com, 2014)

• Judgemental calls
• In vicinity of coaches/players
• Data
• Comparison group

• Three data sources
  • Armchair Analysis, Football Outsiders, stadium pictures
  • Regular season games, 2010-2014
  • Accuracy issues with NFL's PSI readings coin toss data

• Define exposure and outcome

  • \(Direction = \left\{Offensive\ Team, Defensive\ Team, Middle\right\}\)

  • Outcomes \(Y\)
    • \(Holding\) (\(OHR\))
    • \(Interference\) (\(OPI\), \(DPI\))
    • \(Aggressiveness\) (\(DAP\))

• \(P(Y=1|Direction=Off) \stackrel{?}{=} P(Y=1|Direction=Def)\)

• Consider varying effects

• Visualize, account for uncertainty

• Play Direction associated with defensive penalty calls
  
• Play Direction not associated with score, down/distance, etc (not shown)

• Possible moderating variable: \(LOS = Line\ of \ scrimmage\)
  

• Generalized additive model (GAM):

• logit(P(Y=1)) = \(\beta_1*I(Direction = Off)\) + \(f_{Off}\)(LOS) +\(f_{Def}\)(LOS)
  • \(\beta_1\)
  • \(f_{Off}(LOS), f_{Def}(LOS)\)

• More defensive judgment calls near offensive team bench
• Slightly more offensive judgment calls near defensive team bench
• Teams unaware?

They succomb to (are bullied by?) coaches & players.

• Read paper at StatsbyLopez

• Acknowledgements:

  1. JSM panel
  2. Statistics in Sports section
  3. Skidmore's Cody Couture